Is “Peace” a dirty word?

Many Americans and Europeans are deeply concerned about the Ukraine war, but they are not sure of the underlying facts. The following is an outline of the essential issues that (in my opinion) should be considered when we evaluate this conflict, its causes, and its potential resolution. Other opinions are, of course, welcome.

WHAT CAUSED THE WAR?

Although Putin directly created this conflict by invading Crimea in 2014, and by invading eastern Ukraine in early 2022, serious provocations led to those interventions. Here are some of them.

1. NATO expansion to the border of Russia — “not one inch eastward”

Several scholars (e.g., Jeffrey Sachs, Rajan Menon, John Mearsheimer) have documented the many assurances that were given to Russian officials regarding the boundaries of NATO expansion. Famously, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker assured Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO membership would go “not one inch eastward.” Despite that assurance, President Bill Clinton pushed for NATO expansion in the mid-1990s.

In 1999, NATO was expanded to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

In 2004, the NATO expansion included Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Russia complained bitterly, but did nothing.

A breaking point was reached in 2008, when the NATO alliance considered the inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine. Although they were not admitted, NATO members issued this statement: “These countries will become members of NATO.” In response, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, sternly warned:

“Georgia’s and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security.”

It is now clear that Grushko was correct.

To understand why this expansion was provocative, just consider the likely U.S. reaction if the old Soviet Union tried to make Mexico a member of its Warsaw Pact alliance.

2. Western “nonprofit” organizations acted like the CIA

According to Victoria Nuland, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state, the U.S. gave more than $5 billion to Ukraine as of 2013 to help it achieve “the future it deserves.” Much of the money went to fund the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a nonprofit organization that sponsored at least 60 different programs, some of which created civil unrest in Ukraine. The organization does not have clean hands. Indeed, a co-founder of NED (Allen Weinstein) said in 1991:

“A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.”

I doubt that Vladimir Putin found those words to be reassuring.

NED still boasts (on its website) that it financially supported the 2013-2014 “Revolution of Dignity,” which involved public protests that led to a violent coup d’état in Ukraine.

3. The removal of a Ukrainian president

Depending on the perspective, former Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych was either neutral or pro-Russian. In 2014, he was removed from power by political unrest that culminated in a coup d’état. As noted, that unrest was largely funded by western groups such as the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

Yanukovych was replaced by a pro-western president, a fact that caused great consternation among Russian leadership. A few days after Yanukovych was removed from power, Russia invaded Crimea.

WHO STARTED THE CONFLICT?

Trump has been criticized for saying that Zelenskyy caused the conflict that began in 2022. Although Trump’s statement is false and simplistic, it is not without support. Trump and others have argued that Zelenskyy could have ended the fighting, almost before it began. The invasion started on February 24, 2022, and a peace plan (an “off ramp”) was available to Zelenskyy just 3 or 4 weeks later.

The “off-ramp” was in the form of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Undoubtedly, the plan would have given some of the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine to Russia.

It has been widely reported that the tentative peace deal was scuttled by Boris Johnson in early 2022 (at the behest of U.S. leaders). Zelenskyy argues that this is false, but the reasons he gives are troubling.

Zelenskyy claims that Johnson could not have killed the plan because he, Zelenskyy, “never gave my approval for it.” By making that statement, Zelenskyy seems to acknowledge that a peace plan was available; however, he (not Boris Johnson) chose to reject it. Before Europeans promise security commitments for Ukraine, they should carefully investigate this matter to ensure that Zelenskyy is seriously seeking peace.

CAN RUSSIA BE DRIVEN FROM EASTERN UKRAINE?

This is the key point because, if Russia cannot be driven from the eastern regions of Ukraine, continued fighting (costly in human life) may be pointless.

Many military experts believe that it is virtually impossible to drive Russia from all of Ukraine, even if the U.S. supplies massive amounts of military aid. As stated by Ukraine expert Anatol Lieven,

“supporters of complete Ukrainian victory have engaged in hopes that range from the overly optimistic to the magical” (emphasis added).

Lieven notes that the Russian strategy has been to engage Ukrainians in ...

“prolonged battles for small amounts of territory...where they have relied on Russian superiority in artillery and munitions to wear them [Ukrainians] down through constant bombardment. They are firing three shells to every one Ukrainian...”

The Russians also rely on their larger population of fighters. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated (undiplomatically), the U.S. has been…

“funding a meat grinder, and unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the Russians have more meat to grind, and they don't care about human life.”

Recently, the BBC has reported that, in the last two years, Russia has increased its control steadily, gaining about 25 miles across the eastern parts of the region. The losses sustained by Ukraine may not be obvious to most Americans because (according to Anatol Lieven) Biden spent his last year in office trying to “...sustain Ukrainian defense until after the U.S. presidential elections....”

IS ZELENSKYY ACTING RATIONALLY?

Understandably, Zelenskyy hates Russia and Putin; and this hatred may be causing him to behave irrationally.

In the weeks and months before the contentious Oval Office meeting with Trump, Zelenskyy stated that he had not ruled out NATO membership, and that NATO membership should be offered to all of Ukraine – even the parts held by Russia. That is a delusional statement because any single NATO member can veto such an arrangement. Does Zelenskyy seriously think that Trump can be persuaded to welcome Ukraine into the alliance?

During the Oval Office meeting, Zelenskyy made more statements that seem unrealistic. For example, he indicated that Putin would need to pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. In response to a reporter’s question, Zelenskyy said:

“They have to pay. This is the rule of the war during all the centuries all the history. This is the rule of the war. Who began, those pay. Those who began this war he has to pay all money for renovation. He has to pay.”

Who exactly is going to induce Putin to make these payments?

Perhaps Zelenskyy believes that frozen assets (of the Russian nation and its citizens) can be used to rebuild Ukraine, but that is questionable. I suspect that most of the seized Russian funds will be returned to Russia as an inducement to gain Putin’s willingness to stop the fighting.

SHOULD TRUMP GIVE SECURITY GUARANTEES?

Much of the world views Trump as selfish and nationalistic because he does not want the U.S. to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. Although he is focused on U.S. self-interest, his policy is also best for Ukraine, Russia, and neighboring countries. As Trump says, the killing must stop.

After the contentious meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump made this statement on Truth Social:

"I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don't want advantage, I want PEACE.”

For three years, Biden gave Zelenskyy the keys to the car, so to speak. Perhaps Zelenskyy felt like superman because he was using the enormous military arsenal of the United States. I agree with Trump: The car keys must be taken away before Zelenskyy will negotiate seriously.

Trump should not give security guarantees to Ukraine.

WHEN RUSSIA “WINS” WHO WILL BE BLAMED?

Trump, of course!